Donald Mihalik has been a successful real estate professional in the state of Florida for a long time. Over the course of his career, he has been involved in local real estate sales, mortgage originations, and even property management services. Similar to other real estate professionals in the state, he has seen dramatic improvements in real estate values in the state over the past few years. While the Florida real estate market did well over the past few years, there are concerns about the near-term future in 2023. Various factors could influence real estate prices in the state in 2023.
Current Real Estate Trends
When looking to project real estate values in 2023 and beyond, Donald Mihalik and others will first look at current and recent trends. Similar to other states, Florida saw considerable increases in value from 2020 through early 2022. From May 2020 to May 2022, the median sales price in the state increased by nearly 50%. However, since then, the values have declined each month slightly and are now down nearly 5% from the peak. Further, the volume of homes sold has declined more than 25% year-over-year as of September 2022, and homes tend to sit longer before a sale takes place.
Factors to Influence 2023 Values
Clearly, there has been a slowdown in the real estate market in Florida since mid-2022. Donald Mihalik and others believe that 2023 could also be affected due to various factors. There are various reasons why values could be affected in the coming year.
Sticker Shock of Prices
One of the reasons that home buyers may be shy about purchasing a home in 2023 is the sticker shock of prices. While most people agree that homeownership is an excellent long-term investment, there is a point where it makes more sense to rent. With home prices up more than 50% over a two-year period, Donald Mihalik and others believe there is a chance that many people could be priced out of the market.
Increased Interest Rates
One of the reasons for the dramatic rise in values over the past few years was the decline to historically-low interest rates. Many qualified owners could refinance their loans or purchase a home with a new mortgage and take out a loan at under 3%. Due to rising interest rates, mortgage rates in less than a year have increased to more than 7%. This dramatically increases the monthly mortgage payment and could make home ownership unaffordable.
Low Supply and Growing State Could Offset Declines
While high prices and mortgages could make owning a home unaffordable, the state housing market does have some things working in its favor. Donald Mihalik and others continue to point out that Florida is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, which increases housing demand. As supply remains low due to the costs of building new and people are reluctant to sell, the average values could continue to remain high.
Overall, Florida has had a solid real estate market over the past few years. While values have gone up considerably in this time, there is a chance that they could head in the other direction in 2023. Donald Mihalik and other real estate professionals in the state have identified various reasons why this could occur.